每日金融市場分析

市场静待美国3月CPI，加密货币能重启升势吗?

Written on 09/04/2024 by Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Exinity Group

作者：Exinity集团富拓首席市场分析师陈忠汉

日期：2024年4月9日

• Bitcoin back above $70k; trading within 3% of record high

比特币重上7万关口；现距离历史高点3%范围内！

• All 11 FXTM Crypto CFDs rose on Monday in tandem with Bitcoin

FXTM富拓所有11个加密货币CFD都追随比特币攀升

• So far in 2024, cryptos have climbed the same week that US inflation data is released

2024年迄今，加密货币在美国通胀数据发布当周均实现上涨

• Cryptos' year-to-date CPI week advance is tempered by 2 days of declines

在CPI发布周，加密货币周线上涨，但有两天下跌

• Solana offered "strongest hedge” against Gold on CPI days so far this year

今年以来，索拉纳在CPI发布日提供了对黄金的“最强对冲”

Cryptos skyrocketed to kick off this week!

加密货币周一暴涨！

Bitcoin surged over 3% yesterday (Monday, April 8^th) – its biggest one-day gain so far this month - and sliced past the $70k psychological level.

昨日（周一，4月8日），比特币飙升逾3%–创本月以来最大单日涨幅-轻松突破7万美元心理关口。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around its highest levels since mid-March when it posted a new record high of $73,850.

在作者撰写本文时，比特币价格接近3月中旬以来的最高水平，当时比特币创下73,850美元的新高。

Perhaps more importantly for bulls (those hoping that prices will go higher), Bitcoin appears to be on the cusp of conquering the stubborn $71,400 resistance region which had capped prices in late March

对于多头(（希望价格上涨的投资者）来说，或许更重要的是，比特币即将攻克71,400 阻力区，这一带自3月底以来一直发挥着强阻力作用。

The “OG” crypto’s advance has lifted up many other cryptocurrencies along with it.

该“OG”加密币的涨势带动很多其他加密货币走高

Of the 11 crypto CFDs offered within the FXTM universe:

在FXTM富拓提供的11种加密货币CFD中：

• Ethereum was Monday’s best-performer, surging by some 8.5%

以太坊周一表现最好，大涨约8.5%

• Cardano, Litecoin, Polygon, and Ripple each climbed between 3-5% yesterday

卡尔达诺、莱特币、Polygon和瑞波币昨日的涨幅均在3-5%之间

The above-listed price movements come at the onset of a massive week for global financial markets.

在全球金融市场热点密集的一周，加密货币市场可能风起云涌。

The latest US CPI data is due tomorrow (Wednesday, April 10^th).

美国最新的通胀数据将于周三（4月10日）公布

NOTE: CPI = consumer price index, is used to measure inflation

注：CPI =消费者价格指数，用来衡量通货膨胀

This monthly US inflation data release causes trillions of dollars to move across global financial markets.

美国每月发布的通胀数据常会引发数万亿美元资金在全球金融市场流动。

Traders and investors decipher what the latest CPI figures would mean for the Fed’s interest rates outlook – arguably still the primary focus of markets worldwide right now.

交易员和投资者将仔细解读最新CPI数据对美联储利率前景意味着什么——可以说，这仍是眼下全球市场的焦点所在。

How do cryptos tend to behave on CPI weeks?

加密货币在CPI发布当周通常表现如何？

• So far in 2024, cryptos have risen every week that the highly-anticipated US inflation data is released!

2024年以来，重磅通胀数据发布当周，加密货币都会上涨！

Here’s how cryptos have generally fared, as measured by the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, the same week as the US CPI announcement:

彭博银河加密指数显示，美国CPI发布当周加密货币的总体表现如下：

• Week ending March 15^th = +0.9%

(US CPI released on March 12^th, 2024)
截至3月15日当周= +0.9%

(美国CPI于2024年3月12日发布)

• Week ending February 16^th = +9%
  (US CPI released on February 13^th, 2024)

截至2月16日当周= +9%

(美国CPI于2024年2月13日发布)

• Week ending January 12^th = +5.6%
  (US CPI released on January 11^th, 2024)

截至1月12日当周= +5.6%

(美国CPI于2024年1月11日发布)

NOTE: The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index measures the performance of some of the largest cryptocurrencies traded in USD, 8 of which are offered by FXTM as Crypto CFDs namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, Avalanche, Polygon, Litecoin, and Chainlink. These 8 cryptos account for 92.4% of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index.

注：彭博银河加密指数衡量以美元计价的一些最大规模加密货币的表现，富拓提供其中8种加密货币CFD，即比特币，以太坊，卡尔达诺，索拉纳，Avalanche，Polygon，莱特币和Chainlink。这8种加密货币占彭博银河加密指数的92.4%。

If the upward momentum currently evident across the crypto complex can persist, that would only extend this trend (cryptos posting weekly advances when US inflation data is released.

如果加密货币市场当前的上涨势头能够持续下去……，那么有望延续CPI揭晓当周收盘上涨的趋势。

• Weekly advance, but with 2 days of declines

周线上涨，但有2天下跌

To be clear, it’s not a straightforward path upwards for cryptos towards a weekly advance.

需要说明的是，加密货币录得周线上涨也不是连续攀升。

Each of those CPI weeks so far this year has seen 2 different days of declines for the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index.

今年到目前为止，彭博银河加密指数在CPI发布当周都有两天下跌。

Such volatility ensures that crypto CFDs traders still have opportunities this week to benefit from both rising and falling prices.

这种波动性表明加密货币CFD交易员本周做多（从价格上涨中受益）和做空（从价格下跌中受益）均有机会。

• Solana has so far acted as "perfect" hedge against Gold

索拉纳目前为止扮演着规避黄金风险的“完美”角色

In trading, "hedging" means protecting against potential losses by making offsetting investments.

在交易中，“对冲”是指通过反向操作来防范潜在投资损失。

It's like buying insurance for your investments to minimize risks from price changes.

这就像为您的投资购买保险，将价格波动带来的风险降到最低。

And we know that Gold is a popularly-traded product on CPI release days.

我们知道黄金在CPI发布当日通常交投活跃。

The precious metal tends to post a larger-than-usual move on the days that the US consumer price index (CPI) is released.

在美国CPI揭晓时黄金市场往会出现比平时更大的波动。

Bullion has, on average, seen a $25 move between its highest prices and its lowest price on any given trading day so far in 2024.

今年迄今，金价日平均波动幅度（最高价和最低价之间的波幅）为25美元。

This chart below shows the larger-than-average moves (white bars that extend above the red line) for gold on the 3 days that has seen CPI announcements so far this year.

下图显示，今年迄今为止CPI数据发布前后3日，黄金的波动幅度大于平均水平（见红线上方的白柱）。

However, the official CPI number can and do surprise markets, and may go against the trader’s position.

CPI实际读数有可能出乎市场意料，与交易员建仓方向相反。

In order to potentially offset such losses …

为了抵消此类潜在亏损…

Solana has been shown to offer a strong hedge against gold on CPI days.

在CPI发布之际，索拉纳显示出对黄金市场风险的有力对冲作用。

Note how Solana has fared in comparison to Gold on CPI release days so far this year:

今年到目前为止，在美国CPI发布当日，黄金和索拉纳的表现如下：

• US CPI release on March 12^th, 2024
  Gold = -1.12%

Solana = +1.46%

美国CPI于 2024年3月12日发布

黄金= -1.12%

索拉纳= +1.46%

• US CPI release on February 13^th, 2024

Gold = -1.33%

Solana = +0.67%

美国CPI于 2024年2月13日发布

黄金= -1.33%

索拉纳= +0.67%

• US CPI released on January 11^th, 2024

Gold = +0.22%

Solana = -2.09%

美国CPI于 2024年1月11日发布

黄金=+0.22%

索拉纳=  -2.09%

In essence, Solana and Gold have moved in OPPOSITE directions on US CPI release days so far in 2024.也就是说，今年到目前为止，在CPI发布日索拉纳和黄金都朝着相反的方向移动。

Of the 11 crypto CFDs offered by FXTM, this “inverse relationship” (when asset A goes up, asset B goes down, and vice versa) is strongest between Solana and Gold on CPI days.

在富拓提供的11种加密货币CFD中，在美国CPI公布日，这种“反向关系”（当资产A上涨时，资产B下跌，反之亦然）在索拉纳和黄金之间最为强烈。

This sets up Solana as a suitable “hedge” against Gold for this upcoming CPI release due Wednesday, April 10^th, provided this “inverse relationship” holds strong.

美国3月CPI将于周三（4月10日）揭晓，届时索拉纳或许依然是对冲黄金的合适工具，前提是这种“反向关系”保持强劲。

But remember, past performance is not guarantee of future results.

但请谨记，过去的表现并不能保证将来的结果。

And trading is risky at all times!

交易始终是有风险的！

Thus, it remains to be seen whether the 3 above-listed behaviours exhibited by Crypto CFDs will prove true once again this CPI week.

加密货币CFD的上述3个特点本周是否会再次得到验证，还有待观察。

Regardless, CPI announcements tend to inject massive bouts of volatility across global financial markets.

无论如何，美国CPI的公布往往会引发全球金融市场大幅震荡。

And that in turn may result in outsized trading opportunities in Crypto CFDs.

这也给加密货币CFD带来大量的交易机会。

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